Category: Learn Fibonacci Analysis

하락주가 지지포인트 찾기 – BTCUSD

상승시와 마찬가지로 하락하는 주가도 피보나치 새총 모형 반대 모형, 즉 역새총 모형을 계속해서 만들어 냅니다. 그래서 차트분석에서 역새총모형을 확인하고 기준해서 피보나치 레벨을 만들어줍니다.

그러면 어느 한곳에 3중 이상으로 집중되게 되는데 그곳이 바로 유력한 반등 지지점이 됩니다. 여기에 더해서 상방 피보나치 팬라인이나 확장 레벨도 왔다리 갔다리 하는데 상방과 하방 중첩된 라인이 많으면 많을 수록 지지의 힘이 강해집니다.

동영상에서 15분봉 차트에서 계속해서 만들어지는 다양한 기준점(고점)을 갖고 있는 역새총을 확인했습니다. 이와 같은 개념을 일봉, 주봉, 월봉 또는 5분봉, 1시간봉 등등모든 타임라인에 적용할 수도 있습니다.

BTCUSD를 15분 차트로 기준하여 볼때 8057과 7900을 유력한 지지점으로 보면 되겠습니다. 왜냐하면 2중의 중첩(A,E)과 3중의 중첩(B,C,D)이 있기 때문입니다.

하락추세를 일봉으로 나타내면 다음과 같습니다.

9443이 61.80%으로 중요 역할을 하지만, 하락 돌파되었고, 다음의 목표점은 4772/161.80%이 됩니다.

그러면 4772까지 가기 전에 모 좋은 지지선이 없나를 찾아 보면, 6518과 5334가 2중 지지로서 역할을 기대할 수 있습니다. 물론 6518 위에도 많이 있습니다. 여전히 느끼는 것이지만 하늘로 로켓처럼 급상승하는 주식들은 지지선이나 레벨이 많이 약합니다. 느리지만 산봉우리 하나하나 넘는 종목들이 꽉찬 지지레벨을 만들어 냅니다. 참고하시고요. 

위의 차트처럼 반드시 이렇게 된다는 아니고, 계속되는 약세를 뒤집지 못할 때 나올수 있는 가능성입니다. 중간 중간 지지와 저항 변곡지점을 만나게 되는데 그곳에서 방향이 결정이 됩니다. 변곡점을 확보하고 있기 때문에 애매하게 중간에 들어갈 필요가 없고, 확실히 방향이 잡히는 해당지점에서 매매를 하면 되겠습니다. 

Simple calculation for 61.80%

Many traders are saying that they can not use a Fibonacci extension tool on trading platform. But do not worry about because we can use any calculator to produce 61.80% value.

Below chart shows three white troops pattern and the high and the low point of each waveform continuously increase.

1st up wave : S-A-1
2nd up wave : 1-B-2
3rd up wave : 2-C-3

We will produce 61.80% of each up wave. Formulation is 61.80% = (High – Low) * 0.618 + Middle and result are like following.

And draw the 61.80% value line to the chart. Here red colored lines are 61.80%s of each wave.

Obviously, if a stock rises, it will not go down below 61.80% level of 3rd up wave. Because that point is a final support level on move up. Here 1458.

This is Amazon stock and progressing like this after three white troops formed. Today this met 1715.94/423.60% of 1st up wave.

So we are OK without Fibonacci extension function on our trading. Just use any simple calculator to find where are 61.80%s. Please apply this approach to your interesting stocks. This will help you to understand how stock form rising set up at initial phase.

If the practice of finding 61.80% continues, there will be no entry into falling stocks, nor will there be any catching up of stocks that have risen too much.
Just find where are optimal entry point using 61.80% and aggressively attack such target point!

Thanks!

Chart Analysis – Bank of America

How to catch the bottom level? 1) Draw fibo fan line starting from H(ighest) to M(iddle). And tracing fibo fan blue dotted line. 2) Create fibo reverse extension by connecting H-L-M. Here we can find the area which are crossed 161.80% of H-L-M with blue dotted line. This area are possible bottom level. Also here upward fibo fan line created since 2009 works as a support. Three fibo lines work all together. FYI, when blue dotted fibo fan lines meet any 161.80%, 261.80% or 423.60%, that area may be considered as the bottom. This is the way how to discover the price bottom using fibonacci.

Bank of America stock

Three White Soldiers – Get In and Three Black Crows – Get out

Three White Soldiers – SPY S&P 500 ETF

Image 1 explains the Fibo numbers come from the connection 0->1->2->3. Image 2 explains connecting S-1, S-2, S-3. Image 3 explains SPY is not reached 423.60%,about level 325?. This means current market down is adjustment, not drop without hope. Circled marks in Image 1 & 2 means get in point using three white soldiers. Like this, we can apply to find get out point using three black crows.

s&p 500

s&p 500

s&p 500

The most difficult thing in technical analysis is to maintain objectivity. Depending on the time frame, the results may be different. For example, the 1-year chart is up, but the 10-day chart is down. It is a question of which standards should be set. The only thing that can be free about this headache is the use of three white soldiers and three black crows. As a shot-term swing trader, I use mainly a 15-minute chart. Please see images for explaining get out idea if three black crows formed. You can see that the method of connecting the A-B-C in image 2 recommends selling at a higher point.

S&P 500 chart

S&P 500 chart

Strategy for riding the rising stock at the near bottom

This time how to ride the rising stock at the near bottom using Fibonacci extension and fan line. This can also explain how to attack major target levels of Fibonacci extension like 61.80, 161.80 and 261.80%. Please be noted that do not enter at 423.60% level!

See below chart and check circled spots.

netflix chart

The first job is drawing Fibo extensions and Fibo fan line connecting low and next low point. This is the low to low connect method. Also we can use continued price high to low connect method like fibonacci retracement. Will explain this at next posting.

Rising of stock price means going over to the upper level of Fibonacci extension. Normally the upper level will act as a resistance point. There are three ways to breaking up this level.

1) Simply going over 61.80% => Fast shutting up, so will likely go back to 61.80% or under because of no supporting. Not recommend to enter
2) Go over 61.80% with Fibo fan line => Will be OK. Continuing Fibo fan line or 61.80% level will be a base line for profit cut or loss cut.
3) Go over 61.80% with Fibo fan line and Simple Moving Average(SMA) curve => 100% success! Continuing Fibo fan line or 61.80% level will be a base line for profit cut or loss cut.

Like this, we can apply combination of Fibo indicators and SMA curve to figure out the optimal enter point. Please see three circled spots on 61.80% and 161.80% level on above chart. The end of one white candle went over upper target level and we can see SMA curve or/and Fibo fan line is placed on the white candle in a cross up or push up configuration.

When looks stock is rising from bottom, just wait. This can be a bull trap. So just wait until it will reach 61.80% level. And then checking is there any Fibo fan line or SMAs on the white candle which is ending up at the over of 61.80%. If yes, go enter and enjoy.

Where is the start point of Fibonacci extension and fan lines

The most difficult thing about the stock chart analysis is that the results vary greatly depending on the reference point. Because the stock signals are very delicate, misapplication of the reference point can lead to large errors in interpretation. Good standards can give good results. However, bad or ambiguous standards only add to the pain of analysis. Many stock traders have spent a tremendous amount of time and effort trying to find those standards. As one of them, I also spent a lot of time in standardizing the Fibonacci technical analysis. I am working to increase the certainty of the analysis.

Generally speaking, the starting point of Fibonacci extension is to use the lowest point of the chart regardless of time frame. And one more thing, the ideal lowest point is starting from under SMA20, SMA100 and SMA200 curves. If the lowest point on the screen is placed above the SMA lines, try not to create a Fibonacci extension. Charts on the screen you use vary greatly in time frame. For example, from the 5 Min/Day to the 1 Mon/10years. If we start anywhere from the lowest point on the chart, we will see a lot of extensions, and the screen will be really dizzy in our view.

The chart below shows the Fibonacci targets by linking the minimum and maximum values of each stock wave ​​from the last 10 years to the last year 2017 in yearly base. This is so complicated that no body like this.

apple chart

Let’s see that start at the point under SMAs. The following chart is the past five years.

From this below chart, we can get an idea that the maximum value from this extension is 229.96. And we can find another dip point on February 2018. Let’s make related Fibonacci extensions for this.

We can get an idea that the bottomed line of Fibo fan can be a defense point to the recent falling. In this way, it is much simpler to do Fibonacci analysis on any time line chart using the start point under the SMA curves. Even small time frame like 1 Min or 5 Min chart, we can apply this concept to those chart and this may better than any starting point which is placed over some SMAs.

Establishing a clear standard of chart analysis is a way to win in an uncertain market.